Day 48- Midterm Essay

Austin Schmidt

Honors Human Geography

12/10/19

Mr. Schick

Option C Essay

Demographic transitions are not the most reliable way of describing a counties birth rate, death rate and total population in the future. There are five sections of the demographic transition but there could be more that we just don’t know about yet because they haven’t been lived through yet. With every year that goes by more countries are entering higher and higher sections of the transition. Because of these facts no one can truly know haw many transitions there are.

There are four different parts of the demographic transition everyone can agree upon but the fifth section I one that is still debated. The fifth part of the transition is predicted to take countries into decrease in population because of not many children being born and a very low death rate. There are only a few countries to be in the fifth stage but in the next few decades more could transfer into this stage. These facts about how we are going into a fifth transition that we don’t know what will happen.

Demographic transitions in the future could be different from the ones that we know of right now but could just restart like a loop. The future for demographic transitions is even less agreed upon because some people believe that it could go back to stage one or could create a new section that has a lower birth rate and a higher birth rate.

The final reason why they are not reliable for predicting the future is because what demographic transitions were like in the past. In the past before the industrial revolution there was no thought about different sections because most places were the same with a high birth rate and high death rate with a low population. Once the revolution started then countries started changing which could happen but almost a reverse where something kicks up the birth and death rates to keep countries steady.

To summarize my points the past and the future show how the demographic transition is only good for showing countries in lower parts of the transition and not good for the future.